Ahead of the 3^rd May federal election in Australia, the Coalition has promised to conduct a swift review of the 485 visa, claiming that post-study work rights are being “misused” as a loophole for accessing jobs and permanent migration. Indeed, if elected, the Coalition stated that it would examine the Temporary Graduate Visa (subclass 485), arguing that the current post-study work arrangements are being exploited as a route to employment and permanent residency.

The announcement was made in early April, when Opposition leader Peter Dutton revealed a series of policy proposals for the international education sector. These included a proposed cap of 240,000 new international student arrivals annually and a new AUD $5,000 visa fee for applicants aiming to study at Australia’s top universities.

In an interview with The PIE News, Phil Honeywood, CEO of the International Education Association of Australia (IEAA), commented: “Everything that the Federal Opposition has announced during this protracted campaign has been anti-international students and directed against the 250,000 Australians who work in our beleaguered sector.”

He added: “We are therefore sceptical about the motivation for their just-announced 485 visa review,” he added. “If the past is anything to go by, then the outcomes of this review will have been pre-determined: namely reductions in visa applicability, further duration limitations and even potential limitations on partners being able to participate.”

Such outcomes could create unexpected challenges for Australia’s Coalition. For instance, during their previous time in government, they agreed to extend the duration of 485 visas for Indian students by an additional 12 months as a condition for signing the Australia-India Free Trade Agreement.

In contrast, since the beginning of the official campaign, neither the Labor Party nor the Greens have opted to make international students a key issue in the election.

Yet while Honeywood believes the current 485 visa conditions are “working and worth retaining,” he also thinks there “may well be” issues that a thorough review could address. He pointed to the need for better alignment of in-demand skills to ensure more transparent migration outcomes. He also underscored the importance of genuine stakeholder engagement in any such review.

Furthermore, in a recent blog post, Andrew Norton, a higher education commentator and professor of higher education policy at Monash University's Business School, analysed the current and projected numbers of temporary graduate visa holders, highlighting the potential for substantial increases in the total number of 485 visa holders over the next few years. Australia operates a transactional international student industry and should honour its commitments when attracting students to the country with post-study work rights. In addition, if the Coalition accepted that principle, they could either reduce eligibility for the temporary graduate visa for future students or shorten its duration. This would particularly impact migration-sensitive markets in South Asian countries.

Moreover, Norton highlighted the significant number of new students starting in 2023 and 2024, noting that total student numbers will “remain high by historical standards.”

As these students complete their courses, they will create a substantial pool of potential applicants for Australia’s temporary graduate visa. “As of late February this year, I estimate that there were around 1 million people in Australia on student-related visas. I doubt this will fall significantly anytime soon and this may create political pressure for more restrictive policies,” he said.